Researchers Say Military Service Is the 'Single Strongest' Predictor of Violent Extremism



A new study has found that a history of military service is a common characteristic among perpetrators of mass casualty attacks in the U.S. -- and veterans involved in those attacks are far more likely to be successful.

The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, known as START, -- a research group at the University of Maryland -- analyzed a database of thousands of extremist crimes going back to 1990 and discovered that, in that group, people with military backgrounds "are 2.41 times more likely to be classified as mass casualty offenders than individuals who did not serve in the armed forces."

While around three out of four plots that were noted in the database were foiled, "the rate of successful mass fatality crimes involving perpetrators with military backgrounds is nearly two times higher" when compared to civilians.


S.T.A.R.T. Homepage Link

Veterans and service members aren't more likely to radicalize to the point of violence compared to civilians but, when they do, "they are more likely to plan for, or commit, mass casualty crimes, thus having an outsized impact on public safety," according to the START researchers.

Military experience "is the single strongest individual-level predictor" of whether a person will commit a mass casualty event.

The new analysis comes as the Pentagon and the services try to grapple with the idea of extremism within the ranks. Following the violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and the subsequent arrests, the extent of the military's problem with extremism became much more visible than ever before.


However, they say that their data shows that, between 1990 and 2022, 170 people with military backgrounds plotted 144 unique mass casualty terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Diving into that group, the researchers found that the leading two ideologies among the group were anti-government militias and white supremacists.

In fact, more than 70% of those were linked to far-right domestic extremist groups and movements, including anti-government groups and militias such as the Boogaloo movement and the Oath Keepers. Only 15% were considered to be connected to Islamist extremism.

The study also found that almost 80% of the offenses happened after the person left the armed forces, with nearly half having been out of the military for a decade or more. Just under one-third received something other than an honorable discharge -- researchers noted that was a significantly higher percentage when compared to an estimated 16% of other-than-honorable discharges among all vets.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/...e%20successful.